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NFL free agency is finally near, and there may be no position that is more fascinating this offseason than safety. Teams spent the last week or so cutting safeties like it was going out of style in an effort to clear salary cap space, and it’s clear the position has become somewhat devalued as teams move to more two-high defenses in an effort to slow down the deep passing game.
That’s led to a situation where there are just a ton of quality safeties available right now. Because this market is now so crowded, we’re expanding the list and looking at the top 20 (TWENTY!) available safeties below.
(Note: Some players might agree to deal between now and the start of free agency).
Man, that is some group. Every player on this list is at least rotational quality. Most of them are surefire above-average starters. A couple of them are Pro Bowl-caliber players, and Simmons, Poyer and Hyde are guys who are either or recently were annually in the All-Pro conversation.
This is a really good offseason to be in need of safety help in free agency — and probably not a very good offseason to be a free-agent safety. (Especially because, in addition to this group, there’s also Antoine Winfield Jr. and Kyle Dugger, who respectively received the franchise tag and transition tag from the Buccaneers and Patriots.) There has already been talk of how the market will be depressed and how many of these players will get paid less than what their skill level suggests they should.
That’s reflected in Spotrac’s contract projections, which see Curl land the largest deal, but one that would only make him the league’s sixth-highest paid safety in terms of average annual value (four years, $57.7 million, $14.4 million AAV). That’s followed by Simmons (two years, $22.2 million, $11.1 million AAV), McKinney (five years, $52.4 million, $10.4 million AAV), Stone (three years, $21.6 million, $7.2 million AAV), Byard (two years, $14.4 million, $7.2 million AAV), and Hyde (one year, $3.7 million).
The fact that so many of these guys (Simmons, Byard, Hyde, Poyer, Jenkins, Diggs, Eddie Jackson, Adams) were released by their teams and thus would not count against the compensatory pick formula for any team that signs them could lead to them getting paid slightly more than the guys who are subject to the formula; but since a few of them aren’t among the very top group of safeties available, they might have to wait until the second wave of free agency to sign, and those deals are usually bargains for the team.
In our free agency primer, we have the Falcons, Bills, Browns, Broncos, Packers, Colts, Jaguars, Rams, Saints, Jets, 49ers, and Seahawks listed as teams that need safety help, and in the wake of recent releases and other moves, we can certainly add Panthers, Bears, Texans, Dolphins, Giants, Eagles, and Titans to the list. That’s 19 of the NFL’s 32 teams, and there are plenty of talented players available for them to pursue. Some teams are going to get really good players relatively cheaply, and which players get top dollar will likely depend on a combination of factors like age, cap space, scheme fit, and how well their agent sells teams on the player being among the small group at the top, rather than just one of the pack.
